Can Canada wait out the trade war with the US?

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney appears in no rush to resume trade talks with the US.

He dismissed a question over the weekend about when he last spoke to US President Donald Trump, responding: “Who cares? It’s a detail. I’ll speak to him again when it matters.”

Carney added that, in his view, there is no “burning issue” to raise with his US counterpart.

The prime minister has faced criticism for his apparent lack of urgency, which raises the question about whether Canada is shifting its approach to trade talks with the US.

Still, Carney is travelling to Washington next week for the Fifa World Cup draw, where he and Trump could take the opportunity to meet, he told reporters on Wednesday.

Canada is a host country of the international tournament next year, along with Mexico and the US.

Carney said he and Trump have brief communications from time to time, including texts on Tuesday.

But he said he does not want people to dwell on “every little exchange”, and that what matters is the negotiations if and when they resume.

“This is one of those negotiations where there’s a great deal of posturing on both sides,” said Chris Sands, director of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

“Trump doesn’t want to look like he needs a deal too badly. Carney doesn’t want to look too desperate either, and so they kind of play each other out trying to look nonchalant. But of course, there’s money on the table, and there’s a lot to be negotiated.”

Talks between the two countries stalled last month when Trump took offence at an anti-tariff advertisement featuring former US President Ronald Reagan, which was commissioned by the province of Ontario and aired in the US.

Despite the pause, Canadian representatives are still advocating on the country’s behalf with US lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Richard Madan, the trade representative for the province of Manitoba, told the BBC.

But Madan added that trade talks have not formally progressed beyond that.

Ontario’s Reagan ad – in which former President Ronald Reagan says tariffs “hurt every American” – likely hit a nerve with Trump in part because many Americans report feeling financially squeezed, said Mr Sands.

This discontent comes at a politically critical time for Trump ahead of next year’s US midterm elections.

Madan said many Congress members are already in campaign mode. “They’re facing some political headwinds on affordability, and these tariffs aren’t helping,” he said.

A November Fox News poll suggested that 76% of US voters view the economy negatively, up from 67% in July, and that many believe Trump’s economic policies have hurt them.

The president walked back tariffs on dozens of food items earlier this month, and has signalled an openness to lower tariffs on imported metals from Canada and Mexico if some conditions on shifting production to the US are met.

Before the abrupt pause in talks, Trump and Carney were discussing a possible deal on metals and energy, which Canadian officials had hoped would ease the tariffs on Canada’s steel and aluminium sectors.

The US has imposed a 35% levy on all Canadian goods – though most are exempt under an existing free trade agreement. It has also slapped sector-specific levies on Canadian goods, including a 50% levy on metals and 25% on automobiles.

About three-quarters of Canada’s exports are sold to the US, making its economy particularly vulnerable. Carney has noted, however, that due to the duties exemption under the current free trade deal, Canada is facing lower tariffs than other countries.

Carney’s focus has instead been on his pledge to double Canada’s non-US exports in the next decade. The prime minister recently made a string of global trips to pitch Canada overseas, including to the United Arab Emirates and on the sidelines of the G20 in South Africa.

In the meantime, the Carney government has signalled it will be offering financial relief to sectors impacted by US tariffs as they weather the trade storm.

Relief would be welcome by Canada’s aluminium producers, who have had to absorb initial tariff-related costs to meet their contractual obligations with US customers.

But Jean Simard, president and chief executive of the Aluminium Association of Canada, told the BBC that Americans are starting to feel squeezed as their stockpiles of the metal deplete. He noted that the US consumes far more aluminium than it produces, leaving it dependent on imports.

“Time is on our side and pain is on their side,” Mr Simard said.

“We can stay the course, and we think it is to the benefit of Canada to take its time and not rush into a deal prematurely.”

However, Carney is still facing pressure from others to reach a resolution quickly.

Madan noted that US tariffs on heavy machinery have been felt deeply in Manitoba and that people in that sector “are deeply concerned”.

The opposition Conservatives have criticised Carney’s recent comments, saying he has “dismissed and derided thousands of job losses as none of his concern”.

They have also accused him of failing to negotiate and deliver a “win” for Canada as promised on the campaign trail.

Carney on Tuesday conceded a “poor choice of words” in his weekend remarks about talks.

But with both the US midterm elections and a review of a long-standing free trade agreement between Canada, the US and Mexico on the horizon for 2026, some hope that a resolution might be on the way.

Mr Sands noted that the Office of the United States Trade Representative will be holding public hearings in early December on the free trade agreement, known as USMCA (or CUSMA in Canada).

He said it is likely that both Canada and the US will hear from business organisations who want to see free trade continue.

It could help set the table for Carney to say the “private sector says they want a deal. What can we do?” said Mr Sands.