WASHINGTON — The government shutdown is entering its 10th day, with both Republicans and Democrats dug in and refusing to give any ground to their political foes.
But the coming days and weeks will bring some key pressure points that could potentially end the partisan impasse.
Until now, the impacts of the shutdown have been fairly muted, with Smithsonian museums shuttered and some government services interrupted. But Friday, hundreds of thousands of civilian federal workers will get their first paycheck since the shutdown began, reflecting zero pay for October. On Wednesday, service members will see the same.
With air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration agents not getting paid, staffing shortages will likely grow worse, exacerbating flight delays and cancellations that have already frustrated travelers.
On top of that, Democrats’ focus on health care in the shutdown fight is starting to resonate with the public, as millions of Americans on Obamacare begin to receive notices that their insurance premiums are about to go up substantially.
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Missed paychecks
It’s one thing when Americans can’t access national park facilities and museums. It’s another thing when millions of American families from around the country start missing paychecks and can’t pay their bills.
Friday marks the first time when civilian federal workers will miss getting some pay because of the shutdown that began Oct. 1. While they will receive a partial paycheck for work performed from Sept. 21-30, they will not receive any pay for the opening days of October.
That includes Capitol Police officers, Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and Federal Emergency Management Agency workers.
After some confusion created by the White House, congressional leaders in both parties said this week that federal workers will receive back pay once the shutdown ends. But that still doesn’t help families right now who have to pay their rents or mortgages and put food on the table. Once they miss getting paid, workers are likely to amp up the pressure on lawmakers and the president, who for days has been threatening mass firings of federal employees.
“That tells you everything you need to know about them. We don’t share the same values,” said Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., a key member of the Democratic Caucus. “I mean, they want to punish workers.”
Asked about the threat of layoffs Thursday, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told NBC News’ “Top Story” that “there is too much inefficiency in the federal government.”
“There are programs that probably should be eliminated, but we want federal employees to be protected,” he said.
The two sides could feel an even greater sense of urgency Oct. 15, when the 1.3 million active duty service members will miss their first full paycheck of the shutdown. Lawmakers in both parties — especially those who represent military-heavy districts — are already feeling the heat.
A bill authored by Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., would ensure that troops are paid during the shutdown, and has almost 150 co-sponsors, including more than 100 Republicans. But Johnson has argued that such a bill isn’t needed because the stopgap bill the House passed Sept. 19 includes funding for troops.
During a call-in show on C-SPAN on Thursday, a woman identified as Samantha from Fort Belvoir, Virginia, made a personal plea to Johnson, telling the speaker that if her active duty husband doesn’t get paid on the 15th, “my kids could die” because her family won’t be able to afford their medication.
Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump told reporters that Democrats are to blame for the shutdown and workers missing paychecks, but he predicted that paying the troops “probably will happen.”
Johnson on Friday again insisted that the House will not vote on a standalone measure to pay the military. “The Republican Party stands for paying the troops,” he said. “The Democrats are the ones that are demonstrating over and over and over, now eight times, that they don’t want troops to be paid.”
Air traffic controller shortages
Travelers this week got a glimpse of how air traffic controller and TSA employee shortages could wreak havoc on the nation’s airports.
Airports from Washington and Miami to Denver and Las Vegas were snarled by flight delays as officials said they were dealing with a slight uptick in the number of air traffic controllers calling in sick. The Hollywood Burbank Airport in the Los Angeles area operated for several hours Monday with no air traffic controllers because of staffing issues.
As federal airport workers miss pay for the first time in the shutdown Friday, the number of them calling in sick could increase. Delays could get worse in the coming days, further straining the nation’s air system, the economy and the patience of already frustrated travelers.
Trump officials are paying close attention to the staffing issues. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Thursday threatened to fire “problem children” air traffic controllers if they don’t show up for work without a good reason.
But lawmakers said widespread flight delays and cancellations could force Trump and the Republicans to the negotiating table that they’ve avoided during the shutdown fight. Air traffic controller shortages and the travel interruptions they caused helped end the 34-day shutdown during Trump’s first term — the longest in the nation’s history.
“Of any of the factors that led President Trump in 2019 [to say] we got to solve this, it was the air traffic control issue,” Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said. Reagan National Airport in his home state experienced staffing shortages and delays this week; it’s one of three major airports in the area that members of Congress use to commute between Washington and home.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., said he’s been watching television coverage of the flight delays and long lines at airports this week. He believes Trump has been watching the same compelling visuals, and could be motivated to do a deal if things get worse.
“Here’s a guy who watches TV nonstop … the visuals. People doing video of those long lines,” Blumenthal explained. “It’s a black eye for the country. … It should get them to the table.”
Rising health care premiums
The central demand by Democrats in the standoff is to extend expiring tax credits under Obamacare that have helped make premiums more affordable for families. And while the money technically expires Dec. 31, voters are starting to feel the sticker shock.
This month, insurers are sending out notices of sharp premium hikes ahead of open enrollment beginning Nov. 1, now a little more than three weeks away.
Democrats are betting that pressure will soften the GOP resistance to extending that money as part of a bill to reopen the government.
“It’s been important to raise the issue with both our colleagues and with the American public, and also to point out the urgency of the issue,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., the author of a bill to permanently extend the Obamacare money, told NBC News.
“A number of people thought, well, it doesn’t expire until the end of December, so it’s not an issue. And didn’t realize that insurance companies are setting rates right now. … It’s one more thing on top of the cost of food and electricity and rent and child care and all the other expenses that people are incurring,” Shaheen continued.
Johnson, however, maintained that the health care funding issue can be “discussed and deliberated and contemplated and debated in October and November,” after the government reopens. But he faces a divided conference and hasn’t made any promises to hold a vote on the matter.
“I support the speaker,” conservative Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., said.
Moderate Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., said he backed the speaker’s strategy, as well.
“A short, clean CR was always good in the past and should be good now,” Bacon told NBC News. “Most of the GOP are willing to negotiate on the tax credits as part of the appropriations process.”
But far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., is publicly bashing Johnson and her party for not having a plan to address the looming premium hikes that she says will harm her own family members.
“When it comes to the point where families are spending anywhere from $1,500 to $2,000 a month and looking at hikes coming on their insurance premiums,” Greene said, “I think that’s unforgivable.”
