The price of oil surged Sunday after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed its supreme leader.
U.S. crude oil soared more than 7%, while Brent, the international oil benchmark, surged 8% in early evening trading.
Even before the weekend’s escalation, oil prices had risen 17% this year off President Donald Trump’s ramped-up rhetoric against the Iranian regime. The Trump administration has also ratcheted up sanctions on Iran in recent months.
Retail gas prices move about 2.5 cents for every $1 move in the price of crude oil, so already a 20 cent-per-gallon increase could be on the horizon. Price hikes at the gas pump could start as soon as Monday, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said.
“I fully expect that by Monday night, you could credibly say that gas prices are being impacted by oil prices having gone up,” he said.
“It won’t be a spike,” De Haan said, but still warned that gas stations will likely start passing along price hikes this week.
While Iran’s oil production is estimated to be less than 5% of global output — most of which goes to China because of U.S. sanctions — it has major influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for more than 20% of the world’s daily oil demand.
A closure or restriction there can quickly rock the global oil market, and it would be among the worst-case scenarios for the oil market, longtime industry analyst Andy Lipow said Sunday.
On Saturday and Sunday, at least six of the leading cargo shipping companies said they were halting or diverting ships that were originally set to sail through the key waterway.
Stock futures also plunged, with futures that indicate where the S&P 500 will trade Monday dropping 1.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 1.2%. Dow futures dropped more than 530 points.
Russell 2000 futures, which track smaller companies, declined more than 1.6%.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4%, and the price of precious metals rose, with gold jumping nearly 2% and hitting $5,350, an indication that investors and traders are flocking to “safe haven” assets in the wake of the conflict.
“The scale [of Iran’s retaliation] has been a big, big surprise,” Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told NBC News on Saturday. “This is a totally different world from what the market was anticipating.”
Earlier on Sunday, eight oil-rich nations that are part of OPEC+ said they planned to increase production by more than 200,000 barrels of oil per day starting next month in a move aimed at calming markets.
For prices to fall, the market will most likely need tensions to ease.
“The trajectory of oil prices will ultimately depend on four variables” moving forward, said JPMorgan Chase analysts in a note on Sunday. Those factors are how much supply is disrupted, how long a disruption lasts for, if supply from other sources can be mobilized quickly and what comes next.
Crude oil may not be the only commodity affected.
“While much of the focus is on crude oil, Qatar is the second largest exporter of [liquified natural gas] behind the USA,” Lipow wrote in a note. “LNG tankers are also being diverted away from the region,” he added. “A disruption in LNG would result in higher natural gas prices, especially in Europe.”
Natural gas prices rose about 2% in early trading.
