Four House incumbents have already lost re-election bids so far this year, just a few months into primary season. And about a dozen more are facing legitimate threats in the coming months.
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Two Republican incumbents are squaring off for one district in California next week, the latest example of redistricting changing not just general elections but primaries as well, after two Democratic members lost in Texas last week.
But the heaviest upcoming primary action will be on the Democratic side. A handful of Democratic incumbents in California will also face energetic challengers arguing that voters want a fresh face, part of a national slate of anti-incumbent candidates focused on generational change. A wealthy incumbent Democrat in Maryland is running against an even wealthier former congressman in a primary there.
And other Democrats in states like Colorado and Massachusetts face challenges from their party’s left flank, part of a running battle between progressives and the Democratic establishment.
The incumbent primary danger stretches from Connecticut and New York to California and beyond: Hawaii’s oldest member of Congress is fighting for his political survival, too, from a challenger backed by a former governor.
Incumbent members of Congress are notoriously difficult to defeat. But many Democrats are facing stronger challenges this election cycle than ever before, as party members look to turn the page on the 2024 presidential election and mount an effort to retake control of Congress.
In California, that’s led to legitimate Democratic challengers popping up in the state’s top-two, all-party primaries against Reps. Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui, Brad Sherman, Jimmy Gomez and Linda Sánchez. Many of these are generational challenges, with younger Democrats calling on voters to move on from entrenched incumbents.
Some are better funded than others: Thompson’s challenger, entrepreneur Eric Jones, has given more than $5 million to his own campaign, while former White House policy aide Jake Levine loaned his campaign $500,000 to help him narrowly outraise Sherman.
And some of the longtime incumbents are sounding the alarm in ways that suggest they could face real political danger. Matsui’s campaign website includes a message to outside groups asking them to boost a Republican candidate — a move that could help block Democrat Mai Vang, a member of the Sacramento City Council, from advancing to a general election matchup against Matsui.
Seeking generational change
After California’s all-party primaries Tuesday, more traditional party contests lie in wait.
Like some of their California colleagues, Democratic Reps. Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts, John Larson of Connecticut, Ed Case of Hawaii, Diana DeGette of Colorado, Shri Thanedar of Michigan and Adriano Espaillat of New York are facing challenges from much younger Democrats calling for a new approach and a fresh face.
Larson’s challenger, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, is one of those candidates. He’s outraised the longtime congressman and won the state Democratic Party endorsement at its convention.
Larson, a former member of House Democratic leadership who serves on the important House Ways and Means Committee, has brushed aside the vote, arguing the will of the party delegates doesn’t reflect broader voter opinions. The incumbent says his experience is an asset for Connecticut and a freshman replacement would need to climb the ladder slowly before gaining his influence in Washington.
“I don’t know what Luke stands for, other than I’m old,” Larson said on a press call last week flanked by allies from the Working Families Party and others, where he said he’s running for re-election in part to champion his push to strengthen Social Security.
He claimed that Bronin, a previous supporter, met him before launching his campaign and told the incumbent to step aside.
“He told me he was going to turn me into Joe Biden, and I was in for a tough slog,” Larson added. “And I told him: ‘You don’t know me.’”
Bronin denied making either pronouncement, telling NBC News that “the conversation John now recounts has almost no resemblance to the conversation that actually happened.”
“The fact that John is now saying that he found it laughable that someone would suggest that after 28 years in Congress, maybe it was time to pass the torch, reveals a kind of mind-blowing sense of entitlement that is part of the problem,” he said.
“Congressional seats were not meant to be lifetime appointments and the Democratic Party would be so much stronger if we had more people who recognize that part of leadership is knowing when it’s time to pass the torch,” Bronin added.
The left versus the establishment
Other Democratic primaries are strictly playing out more as battles between progressives and moderates — though some of the generational primaries have at least a sprinkling, if not a heaping helping, of ideological divides layered on top of questions about age.
