The fight to shape the future of the Democratic Party is playing out in a slew of key primaries across six states Tuesday, as races across six states set the matchups in crucial November battlegrounds and settle personal and ideological battles across the country.
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Voters will head to the polls in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, with the biggest contest of the night being California’s race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom.
California has a slew of important House primaries, too, after Democrats redrew the state’s congressional lines in hope of netting their party up to five seats. More than a half-dozen incumbents in both parties are fighting for political survival.
And in Iowa, where they believe they can compete up and down the ballot despite Republicans’ recent dominance, Democrats first have to get through a competitive Senate primary, while a broad field of Republicans has been competing for the governorship.
Here are the major races to watch.
California contests
The race to succeed Newsom, who is term-limited, has largely narrowed to a three-way contest among two Democrats — former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire activist Tom Steyer — and former television personality Steve Hilton, a Republican. Newsom has stayed neutral in the race.
California’s primaries are top-two contests, in which all candidates run on the same ballot and the top two move on to the general election, regardless of party. That means it is possible for one party to be shut out of the general election.
The race also includes former Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — all Democrats — and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican.
Becerra has surged in polls since former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race following sexual misconduct and assault allegations. A former Biden Cabinet member, California attorney general and 12-term congressman, Becerra has cast himself as an experienced and steady leader. However, he has faced criticism from several Biden administration colleagues, including suggestions he’s not capable of managing California’s enormous bureaucracy.
Steyer, meanwhile, has dumped more than $215 million of his own money into his campaign, blanketing the California airwaves with ads. He has pitched himself as a loyal and aggressive progressive, advocating for single-payer healthcare, taxes on oil company profits and a billionaire tax that is likely to appear on the ballot this fall.
Hilton has earned the support of President Donald Trump — an endorsement that actually made the race less messy for Democrats by lowering the chances that two Republicans could advance to November as a crowded field of Democrats split the vote.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces two major challengers in her all-party primary: Republican Spencer Pratt, a former reality TV star, and Democrat Nithya Raman, a City Council member and member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, has sharply criticized Bass’ response to the crisis. Trump has praised Pratt’s bid, saying: “I’d like to see him do well. He’s a character.”
It is possible for a candidate to win the mayor’s race outright Tuesday by winning a majority of the vote. If no candidate does so, the top two vote-getters will advance to a November election.
Incumbents on defense
More than a half-dozen California incumbents face serious threats from members of their own parties.
Democratic Reps. Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui and Brad Sherman all face well-funded challengers who are calling for a new generation of progressive leaders. Their Democratic colleagues Reps. Jimmy Gomez and Linda Sánchez face primary challengers, too.
GOP Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are squaring off in a bitter race in which the divided Republican electorate could allow a Democrat to block one incumbent from moving on to the general election.
Iowa in play?
GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds’ decision not to seek a third term opened up the governor’s race after years of Republican dominance. Democrats quickly coalesced around State Auditor Rob Sand, whom they view as a strong contender with fundraising chops and bipartisan appeal.
The GOP primary includes Rep. Randy Feenstra, who won Trump’s endorsement Friday. Feenstra, who represents the red 4th District in the northwest corner of the state, had been considered the front-runner.
But farmer and businessman Zach Lahn — who has the backing of MAHA Action, aligned with the “Make America Healthy Again” movement — has been pouring his own money into the race. The other contenders include state Rep. Eddie Andrews, former state Administrative Services Director Adam Steen and former state Rep. Brad Sherman.
If no candidate wins at least 35% of the primary vote, the Republican nominee will be chosen at the state party convention on June 13.
Democrats also hope to make the Iowa Senate race competitive in November, with Republican Joni Ernst not running for re-election. Republicans have largely coalesced around Rep. Ashley Hinson, who has Trump’s endorsement.
The Democratic primary features progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls and moderate state Rep. Josh Turek. They’ve been battling over who is best positioned to deliver Democrats their first Senate win in Iowa since Tom Harkin won re-election in 2008.
Turek, who has Harkin’s endorsement, has touted his ability to win in Republican-leaning areas of the state. Turek, a Paralympian who won gold in wheelchair basketball, is a self-described “prairie populist” who has made opposition to Medicaid cuts a centerpiece of his campaign.
Wahls, a progressive backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and a slew of labor unions, has said his campaign is about “putting Iowans over insiders.” He first gained notice in 2011, when he was 19 years old, with a viral speech on the state House floor defending his lesbian mothers’ right to marry.
The two Democrats have matched each other in fundraising and spending, but Turek has gotten a major boost from VoteVets, which has spent more than $9 million on the race. While Turek isn’t a veteran, he was born with spina bifida due to his father’s exposure to Agent Orange in the Vietnam War.
Three of Iowa’s four congressional districts could also be in play in November, even as primaries there aren’t expected to be too competitive.
More House battlegrounds take shape
California is home to multiple battleground House races, some of which feature key primaries Tuesday.
In the Fresno-area 22nd District, Rep. David Valadao is expected to move on to the general election against one of two Democrats: state Assemblymember Jasmeet Baines, who has backing from the party’s establishment, or local school board member Randy Villegas, who is backed by the party’s progressive wing.
The San Diego-area 48th also features two major Democrats: San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert and military veteran Ammar Campa-Najjar. There is no Republican incumbent; Rep. Darrell Issa’s decision to retire after redistricting moved this safe Republican seat to Democratic-leaning. The major Republican here is San Diego County Board of Supervisors member Jim Desmond, who has Trump’s endorsement.
In the competitive 13th District, Rep. Adam Gray and Republican former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln are the top two candidates in territory where Trump and then-Vice President Kamala Harris fought to a virtual draw in 2024.
The matchup will also be set in the 6th District in suburban Sacramento, where Rep. Kevin Kiley won re-election as a Republican before he announced he would leave the party. Kiley, an independent, will be vulnerable in the fall in the Democratic-leaning seat.
New Jersey is home to another major battleground district with a competitive primary: the 7th District in the northern part of the state, where GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has disappeared from the public eye for months. Kean is unopposed for his party’s nomination, but four Democrats have raised more than a million dollars there, and there has been significant outside spending, including from a new shadowy group that has spent heavily to knock down a front-runner, healthcare executive Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot.
Some Democrats are concerned the group could be funded by Republicans looking to shape a competitive primary, but there’s no proof either way.
New Jersey’s 9th District, which Trump won by 1 point in 2024 and is represented by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou, could be competitive. The Republican candidates — Clifton City Council member Rosie Pino and Tiffany Burress, an attorney married to longtime NFL player Plaxico Burress — haven’t been able to raise a ton of money.
Two other potentially competitive House races have primaries Tuesday: Montana’s 1st District and New Mexico’s 2nd.
The Montana seat to replace retiring GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke features competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle in a district Trump won by about 11 points. Trump is backing Republican Aaron Flint, a combat veteran and radio host. He has prominent opponents, though: Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state Sen. Albert Olszewski.
The Democratic field includes Ryan Busse, the party’s 2024 nominee for governor; firefighter Sam Forstag, backed by progressives like Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.; and Russ Cleveland, an education advocate.
New Mexico’s 2nd District, represented by Democrat Gabe Vasquez, broke for Trump by less than 2 points in 2024, and Trump is backing Republican former police officer Greg Cunningham.
More Democratic House battles
There’s another major battle between progressive and establishment Democrats in New Jersey’s 12th District in the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman.
The top fundraiser in the race is Adam Hamawy, a surgeon whom Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., credits with saving her life in Iraq. He was later stranded in Gaza during Israel’s war with Hamas.
Hamawy has endorsements from Duckworth and other prominent progressive lawmakers and groups. Other top Democratic candidates include East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen and former congressional nominee Sue Altman.
This is another race in which the party’s debates over Israel policy loom large. Coleman has opposed Cohen, calling him a “hard-line supporter of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu,” according to the New Jersey Globe. And American Priorities, a group formed to counter spending by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in Democratic primaries, has spent big for Hamawy.
In California’s 11th District, in the heart of San Francisco, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened up a crowded, tense primary. Pelosi decided late to back San Francisco Board of Supervisors member Connie Chan. Two other prominent Democrats have been raising big money and attacking each other for much of the race: state Sen. Scott Weiner, who has the state party endorsement, and Saikat Chakrabarti, a former congressional aide who has the backing of a handful of progressive Democrats and groups.
The 38th District, east of Los Angeles, is another seat open because of the redistricting shuffle. Former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis is running to return to Congress, where she served before she joined the Obama administration. But Monica Sánchez, a City Council member in Pico Rivera, is backed by Rep. Linda Sánchez (no relation).
Other open seats include the 1st District, a formerly Republican district that Democrats redrew into one Harris won by 12 points in 2024; the San Francisco Bay Area’s 14th District, which Swalwell vacated in his scandal-marred bid for governor; and the Los Angeles-area 26th, which Rep. Julia Brownley is vacating.
One question in these deep-blue California seats is whether the top two candidates will both be Democrats or whether the general elections will include Republican opponents.
Other races to watch
In New Mexico, Democrats will pick a candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.
The primary includes Deb Haaland, who was interior secretary in the Biden administration following one term in Congress. She would become the first female Native American governor if she is elected, but first she’ll face Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, the father of Chicago Cubs star third baseman Alex Bregman.
Whoever wins the Democratic primary will be heavily favored to win in November. No Republicans hold statewide office in New Mexico.
South Dakota GOP Gov. Larry Rhoden also faces three primary challengers in his first run for a full term. He stepped up from the lieutenant governorship when former Gov. Kristi Noem left to lead the Department of Homeland Security.
Rhoden’s primary opponents include Rep. Dusty Johnson, chairman of the Republican Main Street Caucus, state House Speaker Jon Hansen and businessman Toby Doeden. Trump hasn’t endorsed in this primary. If no candidate gets at least 35% of the vote, it heads to a July 28 runoff.
In Montana, Republicans will pick a candidate to succeed GOP Sen. Steve Daines, who made a controversial last-minute decision to retire and quickly endorsed his preferred successor: former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme. Trump has also backed Alme.
Five Democrats are on the Senate primary ballot in Montana, with the top fundraiser including former state Rep. Reilly Neil. Independent Seth Bodnar has led the field in fundraising. Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana and a former Green Beret, told The New York Times he wouldn’t caucus with either party if he is elected.
